Democrats say their polling shows GOP Rep. Paulsen in trouble

WASHINGTON – The campaign arm for U.S. House Democrats says new polling data show that the government shutdown could become a potent campaign issue against Republican 3rd District Rep. Erik Paulsen, who has evaded a serious Democratic challenger in the past two election cycles despite representing a swing district.

Several caveats before going further with this. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that has a strong interest in unseating Paulsen paid for the automated telephone poll, so take the results with a strong dose of skepticism.

Also, the party committee didn’t release the questions it used, which can significantly alter the outcome depending the wording. The poll also used a relatively small sample of 502 likely voters in Paulsen’s district, which produced a somewhat large 4.4 percent margin of error.